Sunday, April 05, 2009

Bukit Gantang: Laluan Sukar Buat PAS

Sila klik pada snapshot untuk gambar yang lebih jelas.

Dalam PRU 2008, PAS telah menang kerusi parlimen Bukit Gantang kerana corak sokongan berikut; mendapat 50.7% undi Melayu, 53% undi China, 56% undi India dan 50% undi Lain-lain kaum. Hasilnya PAS telah mendapat majoriti 1,566 undi.

Perhatikan bahawa dalam waktu terbaik bagi PAS sekali pun, sokongan Melayu buat PAS di Bukit Gantang hanyalah 50.7%, yakni lebihan sokongan tidak sampai 1% dari sokongan Melayu terhadap UMNO-BN.

Saya pasti pembaca semua arif tentang perkembangan politik di Perak sejak Mac 2008 hingga kini, tetapi saya tidak fikir ramai pembaca sedar apa yang telah berlaku di peringkat "mikro" dalam kawasan parlimen Bukit Gantang, apatah lagi hal-hal mikro yang berlaku dalam tempoh satu dua minggu lepas, umpamanya, dalam DUN Changkat Jering.

Satu perkara besar yang petugas pilihan raya kecil PAS di Bukit Gantang perlu sedar ialah "pentas tarian politik" di sana, khususnya di Changkat Jering sudah terlalu banyak berubah sejak Mac 2008.

Suka atau tidak, petugas PAS kena terima hakikat bahawa struktur sokongan buat PKR di Changkat Jering sudah berubah sakan. Rata-ratanya, sepengamatan saya, PKR Changkat Jering sudah separa lumpuh, bila sekurang-kurangnya 50% penyokongnya telah merestui tindakan Osman Jailu lompat keluar dari dakapan Pakatan Rakyat. (Dah lah di DUN Trong PAS tiada peluang langsung).

Mungkin strategis dan bijak pandai PAS yang ada di Bukit Gantang kini tidak perasan -- fakta yang Osman Jailu selama ini (dan hingga kini), didokong oleh golongan petani (peladang/ penternak) Changkat Jering melalui jaringan pengaruh beliau ke atas saf kepimpinan koperasi/persatuan peladang/penternak daerah itu.

"Haiwan politik" yang mampu mempengaruhi sokongan

Untuk kumpulan ini, dalam tempoh semingggu dua yang lepas, Kementerian Pertanian telah melepaskan entah berapa ratus ekor kambing Boer melalui koperasi/persatuan peladang/penternak daerah itu.

Di masa yang sama Kementerian Usahawan telah melepaskan entah berapa juta ringgit kepada entiti-entiti yang sama untuk projek-projek fertigasi instant.

Mimpi tuaian cabai yang bakal merubah pola sokongan politik di Bukit Gantang

Bayangkan manfaat, ganjaran duniawi yang sedang menunggu golongan petani/peladang Bukit Gantang jika menyokong UMNO-BN. Itu belum lagi ambil kira jalan-jalan kampung hinggakan ke lorong-lorong mati (dead end lanes) yang diturap tar setebal enam inci.

Snapshot di atas ialah simulasi keputusan PRK Bukit Gantang diberi peratus sokong kaum pada kadar-kadar tertentu.

Gambaran yang jelas dari simulasi tersebut ialah, diberi tahap sokongan kaum China dan India tidak berubah dan sama seperti dalam PRU 2008, sokongan Melayu terhadap PAS hanya perlu gelincir 3% dan PAS akan kalah.

Dan seandainya undi China dan India turut gelincir ke tahap 50% sekalipun, PAS akan kecundang.

Sehubungan senario undi China dan India turut gelincir, apa yang pembaca perlu sedar ialah yang dikatakan "kekuatan DAP" di Perak itu sebenarnya adalah satu ilusi.

Pengaruh DAP di Perak selama ini bukanlah menyeluruh tetapi tertumpu di kawasan Ipoh sahaja. Apa yang menyebabkan DAP nampak kuat di Perak dalam tahu 2008 ialah "pemberontakan" GERAKAN terhadap rancangan Sang Menantu untuk menstruktur
semula saf kepimpinan GERAKAN seMalaysia mengikut seleranya melalui percaturan calun-calun GERAKAN dalam PRU 2008.

Pemberontakan ini telah menyaksikan grassroot GERAKAN lompat masuk DAP atau ikut sokong percaturan politik GERAKAN yang main wayang dengan DAP. Kesannya, jika dilihat DAP itu berpimpin tangan dengan PAS, maka grassroot GERAKAN pun turut sokong PAS.

Kini Sang Menantu dan Mertuanya sudah tiada taring lagi dalam menentukan perjalanan Barisan Nasional. Setentunya hakikat ini sedikit sebanyak boleh mendorong ahli dan penyokong GERAKAN mempertimbangkan untuk berdakapan semula dengan UMNO-BN.

Dan di sinilah cabaran sebenar PAS di Bukit Gantang -- memastikan ahli dan penyokong GERAKAN yang kini dilihat memakai baju DAP itu tidak berubah hati untuk menyokong semula UMNO-BN.

6 comments:

luaskanmata said...

Salam singgah:

Satu pemerhatian yang sukar untuk dipertikaikan.

Salam jihad.

rohaini salleh said...

This is something I would like to share with all friends.When I first went into Lim Kit Siang's blog (blog.limkitsiang.com), the first thing I read is him calling Mukhriz (Jerlun MP) and Tan Keng Liang (gerakan kedah youth chief) as people "lack of grey matters" and silly. That was about 2 weeks ago. Today, I read that he said "the IQ of the Health Minister, Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai, who is MCA Vice President and Penang MCA State chief, is highly suspect when he could not understand simple English". The problem is that the more Lim Kit Siang branding that he is smarter than the rest of the people in the world (which I don't belief), the more people will just see him as a person barking on the wrong tree. I support DAP but I wish that our party's chairman can be more polite when addressing other leaders (whether they are Barisan or Pakatan). Otherwise, this will set bad example to the new generation of Malaysians.

Anonymous said...

salam bro,

mana gi ni , lama tunggu analisis, ingat tutup dah blog, ke gi ke umno hahaha... GI MANE?

good man said...

It is undeniable that malays are stupid, incapable and lazy. Why don't they just humbly admit the facts and repent and learn from other races especially Chinese?

What is the point to argue here and wasting time again?

From the first onwards we were merely telling the truths. It wasn't us who think that way but their own Badawi as well.

All malays should go and read the newspaper, even Badawi is ashamed of maintaining the NEP after 34 years of implementing it and these malay baboons are still asking for it.

Even Badawi wanted them to compete on a level playing field.

So what does all these tell the world? It sends a very clear message that it is malays themselves who are incapable and lazy and they don't even want to admit it and make a change!

That is the biggest shame of all.

Can't you see, it is all back to square one. Year in, year out, some talk for half an hour, some one, some two. Some sing, many belt out their most recent released 'pantun'.

After all. Malays are good at that. Suggestions after suggestions, some good, some impossible to realize.

But, do you see any of these materialised? Hardly. Why, why and why???

Because the malays can never change. Never! Why?

The leaders forgot it or were they simply didn't want to address and admit that the actual disease is the malays and the remedy itself is also, the malays. They can never change. What is it about the malays?

Firstly as you all know, they are a lazy species. Since the beginning of time they have been like that. Even the encyclopedia called them as lazy people. I think those British with their accent tried to call them 'malas', and if you put 'y' in, it becomes 'malays'.

Embracing Islam make them a worse lot. Now they have a license to kill anything that gets into their way.

Malays are ungrateful lot. In reality, they just can't live or open their minds for others. When Mahathir said that they are complacent, they put him in jail. When Mahathir encouraged them to learn English language, they got angry with him, saying it is a 'bahasa penjajah'.

When other races 'maju', they got angry with them too. That was why at the end of Mahathir his regime, he said this, "I have achieved greatness as a prime minister, but I only fail in one thing, changing the malays."

Well, nothing to be surprised about anyway since Mahathir is not really a malay, and I guess that was why the malays were angry with him.

Drug abuse, hate, incest, liberal extremism (culture of miniskirts and gay marriages), murder, parochialism, racism, rape, religious fanaticism, snatch theft, spoilt bratty behavior, tribalism, wife abuse, child abuse, all that is associated with the malay race.

To them, malay is the biggest impediment towards building a truly Malaysian nation, and should be chucked into the dustbins of history.

A genetically flawed race cannot be fixed by politically. Nature will take its course and globalization will put them out to pasture.

What have we got now?

Brain drain, economic disparity getting wider, poor education system, racial segregation, widespread corruption, inefficiency and uncompetitive on the government departments and others.

Sad. Sad. Sad. The question asked by many of my fellow Chinese is this - Why can't you just tell the malay peoples to adopt Chinese culture which is superior?

From research, this peninsular was part of the Siamese empire way before these malays from Indonesia invaded it.

Still so thick skin, don't want to go back to Indonesia!

future phenomenon said...

apakah jihad akan berlaku melalui gerakkan politik..apapun, di ucapkan selamat...insyallah

apapun, tumpang ziarah. jika ada yang berminat dengan teori konspirasi, sejarah nusantara yang hilang, sufism, kebangkitan akhir zaman..sila lah ke nusanaga.blogspot.com

harap salam ukhwah akan bertaut demi masa depan..sekian

......................................

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